“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children and grandchildren”

Michael Edward Bennett (bennett6520@yahoo.com)

Humans have a zero capacity to live and flourish outside the confines of Mother Nature’s lesson’s and so it is on Santa Rosa Island. You will find on the Navarre Beach Leaseholders Association website an interesting short history of Santa Rosa Island by Ms. Jane Johnson that gives us an easy read on one of seven National Sea Shore Barrier Islands in the Gulf of Mexico. Santa Rosa Island being one of the more recent barrier islands formed, about 5,000 years ago. Only being inhabited for the last one hundred years. These island formations were created following our most recent global warming event that’s resulting in rising sea levels that began about 18,000 years ago for reasons yet to be discovered and understood. At that time a land bridge existed between Asia and North America. Needless to say, 25 percent of the earth’s land mass had been covered in ice. The land bridge that existed between Asia and North America allowed Homo Sapiens to migrate over the land bridge and overtime they moved east across North America and south into Central and South America when sea levels were 120 meters lower

than then they are today. With the warming waters and temperatures came kelp, grasses, trees, rivers and lakes.

In the Atlantic ocean you would find floating sargassum seaweed and the emergence of the Gulf Steam with the estuaries in North America that carried sediment and vital plant nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico that helped form the barrier islands of primarily quartz sand, flushed down from the weathered Appalachian Mountains. These fragile barrier islands stood as guardian sentinels over the panhandles mainland shoreline and are still being formed and reformed by Mother nature over time. One of those barrier islands, Santa Rosa Island not only guards the mainland shore but protects the entire Pensacola Bay System to the north. ^{(Note: Helen Czerski, The Blue Machine: How the Ocean Works, 2023)}

Every reasonable informed citizen knows that sea levels have been steadily rising for thousands of years and global warming is a long term reality. What we have recently learned is that the rate of the mean sea level rise is accelerating in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf of Mexico sea level is rising three times faster than the overall average global rising sea level rate. When coupled with the atmospheric global warming we’re observing and experiencing more frequent and intense tropical storms and hurricanes over the last twenty three years (2000-2023) than the previous fifty years (1950-1999) according to the most recent available data. The forecast of these concerning facts has convinced scientists that the trend will likely continue to occur for the next seventy-five years, through 2100. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) in a 2017 Gulf Island National Seashore report on Floridia’s Santa Rosa Barrier Island predicted that “coastal flooding will become more frequent as sea levels rise…” The report goes on to say: “As a result, Sea Level rises (SLR) has the potential to greatly impact the Gulf Islands National Seashore (Florida) and its (park’s) ability to fulfill its mission.” In this 2017 report, the relative SLR scenarios range from an intermediate too extreme range of 1.9 feet to 3.9 feet of sea level rises by 2060. ^{(Note: Sea level rise scenario for the Gulf Islands National Seashore (NS) Florida, 2017) (Note: 2004 photo of Santa Rosa Island after hurricane’s Sally 2020 and Ivan 2004)}

In 2008, Science Direct published the findings of three universities on geological surveys entitled; Controls on Coastal Dune Morphology Shoreline Erosion and Barrier Response to Extreme Storms. In general the consensus of these studies concluded that extreme storm surges depends on the relationship of the storm surge height and the elevation of the existing foredunes. To that extent, dune height and width are critical to resisting the storm surge and protecting the mainland and Pensacola Bay system. One of these studies had reviewed the before and after effects of Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The hurricanes over wash of the isdand tended to be greater in areas where little or no foredunes or smaller back barrier dunes had been developed. All three studies argued that sand and sediment is returned naturally to the beach face via the nearshore sand bar mitigation process following a storm surge and recovery will vary over time based on local circumstances and future tropical storm frequency and intensity. The condition of height and width of dune structures, island elevation and presence of natural vegetation as well as the beach sand cycle from the beach shore to the dunes structures and vice versa is critical to sustained dune growth recovery on the island. In the 9-21-2022 issue of Nature, it reported that several more recent studies on the mean sea Level (MSL) along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast tidal gauge records shows the average tidal rate has been rising at the greater rate of 10 mm per year since 2010, which is said to be unprecedented in over 120 years of records. ^{(Note: 10mm equals 0.394 inches per year times 13 years equals an average of 5.12 inch rise on average.)}

These studies concluded that post-storm surge responses and recovery of the barrier island is complicated and based on local shore characteristic variations and the presence of vegetation. Regarding natural vegetation, the studies recommend “burial tolerant” vegetation type replants in selected over wash areas on the island . The report also shows the average pre-2004 Hurricane Iran elevation of Santa Rosa island was 4.3 meters and the average elevation of the island after Hurricane Ivan was at 2.3 meters and that 70 percent of the dunes were reduced in number, height and width. Overall, the width of Santa Rosa island is now on average 150 feet narrower than it was in 2003. (see before and after Hurricane IVAN, LIDAR study data comparison of 11 Km Santa Rosa Island in the National Seashore Barrier Island Park.) ^{(Note: LIDAR is Light Detection and Ranging; application with laser imaging from aircraft or satellite)}

Outside of these real and looming environmental issues, Navarre Beach leaseholders and the state of Florida may likely face a beach “renourishment” funding crisis as government officials, the media and most citizens have chosen to ignore the growing national debt over the last twenty-five years, which cannot be ignored any longer. The issue is and has been fiscal and monetary policies that both political parties have equal responsibility for and have failed to address. Such continued abnegation will be at our own peril because of the potential collapse of the faux dollar as the global exchange currency. With the national debt likely to reach $35 trillion by the end of this fiscal year in Sept 2024 and soaring interest rates as well as the interest payments on the national debt are currently exceeding the total distribution of Social Security payments or if you prefer, exceeds the current National Department of Defense budget. Without a course correction by our 536 “representatives” in the Land of Oz, will come another two trillion dollars in debt per year to the existing national debt. When these expenditure cuts are made there will be less dollars for FEMA, EPA and the state of Florida to fund “beach renourishment” to attract more tourist to Florida. If the national budget is not balanced soon the U.S. faux dollar as the global exchange rate and the entire America economy in my view will likely soon collapse as the debt continues to rise to a point whereby the debt principle could never be paid off or lowered. A potential financial crisis much like the Germans faced after World War I. The ultimate question for Santa Rosa County taxpayers is how will beach renourishment be funded in the future, if it is to continue into the future?

As the evidence has shown over the last 20 years, the frequency and intensity of major storms and surges that have had an impact on Santa Rosa Island beaches was three fold the number over the previous 50 years. The following is a list of those named or number storms that had various erosional effects on Navarre Beach and Santa Rosa Island after 2000 with Tropical Storms Alison and Barry (2001); Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Isidore (2002); Tropical Storm Bonnie, Hurricanes Frances, Ivan and Dennis (2004); Hurricanes Cindy, Dennis and Katrina and Tropical Storm Arlene (2005); Tropical Storms Barry and 10 (2007); Hurricane Gustave (2008); Tropical Storm Claudette and Hurricane Ida (2009); Tropical storm Lee (2011); hurricane Isaac (2012); Tropical Storm Berl (2013); hurricane Hermine (2016); hurricane Nate (2017); hurricane Michael and Tropical Storm Alberto (2018); Hurricane Barry (2019); Tropical Storm Cristobal and hurricane Sally (2020); Tropical Storm Fred (2021) and hurricane Idalia (2023). ^{(Note: biologist and oceanographer point out that the effects of tropical storms and hurricanes need not hit landfall in a local area like Santa Rosa Island to have an effect on beach erosion. These listed storms covered an area from Louisiana to the Big Bend, Florida area that resulted in some abnormal beach erosion on the 42 mile long Santa Rosa Island. Even without storm and surge activity all studies report sand migration continuously moves along the Florida panhandle from east to west at various rates dependent of wave current and wind action.)}

Consider the distinguished editor emeritus of the Pensacola News Journal, J. Earle Bowden’s writing on this subject matter published on 9-16-2006 in part here who had said: “It’s futile, I suppose, reaching back, saying what we should have done when so much Pensacola and Navarre Beach sand has been expensively recycled in multimillion dollar allotments… doubtless coughing up $18.6 million to renourish 4.5 miles (pre-Ivan) at Pensacola Beach and up to $13 million for Perdido Key we should have learned from Charles Fraser’s Hilton Head Island eco-friendliness. He set a high standard in 1956 that we have simply ignored… Unlike Floridia’s mostly ultra-commercialization, with beach renourishment now a tax-draining fact of life… But no, our beach planners in the 1950’s relegated the natural elements like dunes and natural vegetation to second place-for bulldozing-while applying a regular mainland streetscape with asphalt and concrete hugging the fragile shores of Santa Rosa island and Perdido Key. If primary dunes with stabilizing vegetation stood in the way, level it and pour concrete. Today we routinely abuse the natural beach with high-rise towers and expensive rental palace’s, sacrificing the very natural wonders attracting people to Gulf coastal life… Failing to heed nature’s course correction process by bulldozing over natures creation rather than respecting its mighty forces as did beach pioneer Charles Fraser. Instead, we pay for sucking eroded sand from elsewhere and beach property investors and some residents bemoan how tropical storms have now left them beachless. Once you’ve done it, you do it again and again, a costly lesson; millions with the same prospect of paying the same toll every five or seven years.”

Seventeen years later, and after spending of millions of dollars on beach renourishment pumping the same sand over and over up on the Santa Rosa Island beaches what have we learned since Mr. Bowden and many other’s sages of wisdom, like Benjamin Franklin put it this way 250 years ago; ”Insanity is doing the s ame thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” The pre-eminent editor of the Pensacola News Journal, J. Earle Bowden had explained it this way earlier: “Beach renourishment will never end! Geologists have warned for decades that beach renourishment effectively institutionalizes beach erosion, especially on a narrow fragile finger of land like Santa Rosa Island. Replace the dune line with high rises and large houses. Then the storm wave water wind action and rising seas are abrogated and the natural forces are altered. The logical long-term remedy means moving the buildings behind the primary dune line (Coastal construction Control Line; CCCL). That’s not likely to happen and then your locked into an endless expensive beach renourishment cost. The developers develop and maximize space with smaller lots and high rise density towers that block sea breezes and wind. When a barrier islands like Santa Rosa Island are prohibited from breathing naturally by concrete, steel and parking lots, Mother nature changes course and the sand flows increase westward. Sucking the sand from offshore kills millions of small sea creatures and fish and turtles go elsewhere. Jetties, seawalls, revetments, groins, bulkheads, breakwaters and beach renourishment all compound and assault the natural processes. Still engineers and developers are allowed to build more and more populations are moved into smaller and smaller spaces. Beach renourishment costs soar after the developers move on to another beach to maintain a barrier island out of balance. What goes in, must equal what goes out or the island eventually declines. As sea levels rise naturally it allows the material to move landward, when allowed. When barrier islands are prohibited from moving sand by man-made wall to wall structures, “stabilized” erosion chews up the beaches.” In the end, Mother nature wins and homo sapiens pay the price for their artificial beaches. ^{(J. Earle Bowen, PNJ opinion, 20 oct 2001, p-8,)}

With all due respect to Mr. Bowden, It was my mother who told me to never say never. In the end, Mother nature will find a balance in her creations and her recreations. Much of what Homo Sapiens do is short- sighted and self-centered. Spending about $3 million a year on average for beach renourishment from local and state sources means simply that other priorities will not and cannot be addressed for lack of public funding. In 2006, the Navarre Beach renourishment reportedly cost about $19.7 million to add 150 feet of beach front to about 3.7 miles of the beach. The state of Florida paid 58 percent of the cost, Santa Rosa County paid about 4 percent and the remaining 38 percent was paid by the leaseholders through a special assessment under the Municipal Services Benefit Unit (MSBU). ^{(Note: Reported PNJ, 25 April 2012, p-A3)}

In 2012, Navarre Beach renourishment costs was reported to be $18.6 million. Ms. Teresa Pack, president of the Navarre Beach leaseholders association told the Santa Rosa County Commissioners, “We are willing to contribute but we strongly urge that you find a different means be found to fund this project.” County Commissioner Jim Melvin agreed and said, “This is going to be an ongoing problem. It’s as natural as a sunrise and sunset.”

In 2016, the Navarre Beach restoration costs were reported to be about $5 million for leaseholders of the reported $17.8 million cost for the project to begin that April. The leaseholders this time are expected to pay 28 percent of the total cost compared to 38 percent in 2006 through MSBU assessments. The state funding would be about $5 million and 4.8 million from the state bed tax increase dedicated to beach renourishment. The remaining balance of $10 million would be split between the county and MSBU assessment. In 2023, Navarre Beach faces its fourth major beach renourishment at an estimated cost of $18 million with Santa Rosa county paying about $7 million if FEMA contributes federal dollars. ^{(PNJ 30 April 2023 p-A3-7)}

In December 2015, the retired biologist Bill Young, with 35 years’ experience in natural resources and conservation protection on barrier islands and a resident of Pensacola since 1960 wrote in PNJ’s viewpoint column and explained that the current course of action is the wrong direction. In part, Mr. Young explained that if we really value our beaches and what it means to our economy we should do more to protect it. He says, with landward migration of our barrier island, rising sea levels and more powerful and mor frequent hurricanes and tropical storms we are just buying time against the inevitable which is a total collapse of the dune and sandbar system and massive destruction of property. With so-called beach renourishment and the current Coastal Construction Control Line (CCCL, Development setback line), we are just toying with protection.” He says, The first line of defense is the sand bar that dissipates wave energy before it reaches the beach. The dunes and sandbar work closely together. They are part of a perpetual cycle where sand is exchanged between land and water. The cycle runs between winter and summer with sand blown from the island dune and land into the Gulf in the spring/summer. In the fall/winter the sand is carried sand bar by waves to the beach where the wind blows it landward to build the dunes and island growth. The current manmade setback line (CCCL) prevents the cycle from occurring. In fact, no one pays attention to the CCCL setback line and structures are allowed where they shouldn’t be allowed on the beach. Mr. Young says, ”Hat’s off to the Portofino development for its design and construction behind the CCCL setback line. They got it right!”

As for beach renourishment, he says the process sucks sand from offshore and piles it on the beach. The result is that the slope of the sand off shore is shortened and the angle is steeper and fails to dissipate the wave energy so that it causes increased beach erosion, not less as the natural beach does. He also says the sand density of a renourished beach is not compacted like a natural beach and gets eroded quicker than a natural sand beach. In addition, turtles don’t recognize their home for egg laying on a nourished beach. Studies show that turtle nesting has declined by 35 percent on renourished beaches and millions of

sea shell creatures in the sand are killed in the process and fishing declines as a result. As for beach renourishment, he says the process sucks sand from offshore and piles it on the beach. The result is that the slope of the sand off shore is shortened and the angle is steeper and fails to dissipate the wave energy so that it causes increased beach erosion, not less as the natural beach does. He also says the sand density of a renourished beach is not compacted like a natural beach and gets eroded quicker than a natural sand beach. In addition, turtles don’t recognize their home for egg laying on a nourished beach. Studies show that turtle nesting has declined by 35 percent on renourished beaches and millions of sea shell creatures in the sand are killed in the process and fishing declines as a result.

Mr. Young had called for the county to stop issuing build permits south of the CCCL setback line, start to use eminent domain to acquire property where storms destroy private property, stop building high rises and spend the dollars being spent on renourishment to purchase beach property and begin restoring the beach from to its balanced natural order. Over time. The beachfront south of Hwy 399 could become a state of county park for more people could enjoy and relax on a natural beach with the building and maintenance of the primary dune system like they are putting in place in New Jersey and North Carolina.

In a November 2021 Frontiers in Marine Science review of the available literature on adapting four models to the rising sea level and intensification of extreme atmospheric storms on coastal populations is complex and limited according to the report entitled Designing Coastal Adaptation Strategies to Tackle Sea Level rises is summarized in the attached slide:

There is no simple solution to the problem but all the stakeholders will need to come to a consensus on the direction and the solution to the growing problem were all facing on Santa Rosa Island. It has taken seventy-five years to come to this point in time. The clock is ticking and the future of Santa Rosa Island and Navarre Beach is fast approaching. The choices are clear. Continue on the present course of action and incur the continuing costs for beach renourishment or come to a consensus on an alternative plan and direction that’s in the best interest of Santa Rosa County citizens over the next seventy-five years. Without question federal, state, regional and local governments will need to work together. Beach preservation, funding sources, state and federal regulations will be forth-coming, socio-economic balances will need to be addressed, economic barriers will limit choices, technological applications will be limited, cost benefit analysis will need review, and institutional and political changes may be needed.

Michael Edward Bennett, December 2023

Bennett6520@yahoo.com